Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 projects that Canadian families will face higher grocery costs in the year ahead, with food prices expected to rise between four and six percent. The report estimates that an average family of four will spend $17,571 on food in 2026—an increase of up to $994 from last year. The findings also underscore a growing affordability gap: one-quarter of Canadian households are now considered food insecure, and today’s food prices sit 27 percent higher than five years ago.
Produced collaboratively by researchers from ten Canadian universities, the annual report analyzes economic, environmental, and industry data to forecast food trends. This year’s outlook highlights several major forces affecting prices. A temporary GST-HST holiday early in 2025 briefly pushed inflation into negative territory, but ongoing trade disputes with the United States and rising production costs have intensified volatility across the sector. Beef prices climbed sharply—up 19 percent in the first quarter alone—and supply pressures are expected to keep prices elevated into 2026. Experts also warn that reforms to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program may contribute to labour shortages, adding further pressure for farmers and processors.
Looking ahead, forecasters expect national inflation to settle around two percent next year, but say consumers should still anticipate higher chicken prices, continued supply challenges due to global weather events, and uncertainty around the rollout of new food labelling rules and the Grocery Code of Conduct.
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